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Harvard Üniversitesi bilim insanlarının yaptığı araştırma, iş seyahatlerinin ulusal ve global ekonomideki yerini ortaya koydu. COVID-19 sebebiyle seyahatler durma noktasına gelirken, Türkiye’nin de içinde olduğu araştırmaya göre iş seyahatlerinin tamamıyla iptal edilmesi halinde, küresel ekonomideki küçülme çift hanelere ulaşabiliyor.
İş seyahatleri ve bilgi birikimi transferinin ekonomik boyutunu gözler önüne seriyor.
Harvard Üniversitesi bilim insanlarının Mastercard verilerini kullanarak araştırma yaptı. İş seyahatleri ve bilgi birikimi transferinin ekonomik boyutunu gözler önüne seriyor. COVID-19 salgınından çok önce başlayan araştırmanın temelinde, iş seyahatlerindeki büyümenin dünyadaki genel ekonomik büyümeden daha büyük olması yatıyordu. Nature Human Behaviour(*) dergisinde yer alan araştırma sonuçlarına göre, iş seyahatlerinin iptali dünya ekonomisini önemli derecede etkiliyor. Araştırmaya göre ülkeler arasında yapılan iş seyahatleri ile, seyahat eden ve edilen ülkelerin ekonomileri arasında doğrudan bağlantı bulunuyor, bu seyahatler ülkelerdeki mevcut ve yeni sektörleri etkiliyor.
Araştırma Mastercard Kapsayıcı Büyüme Merkezi (Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth) tarafından anonim olarak sağlanan ticari kredi ve banka kartı kullanımlarının mercek altına alınmasıyla yapıldı. Ortaya çıkan sonuçlara göre Almanya’dan yapılan iş seyahatleri tamamen iptal edilirse dünya ekonomisi yüzde 4,82 oranında küçülüyor. Bu oranla dünya ekonomisini en çok etkileyen ülke olan Almanya’yı, yüzde 1,83 ile Kanada ve yüzde 1.02 ile ABD izliyor. İngiltere ve Güney Kore de iş seyahatlerinin dünya ekonomisine etkisi bakımından ilk 5 ülke arasında yer alıyor. Türkiye’den yurt dışına yapılan iş seyahatlerinin iptali ise dünya ekonomisinin yüzde 0.06 küçülmesine yol açıyor. Bu oranla Türkiye, iş seyahatlerinin global ekonomiye etkisi bakımından 88 ülke içinde 22’inci sırasında yer alıyor.
Türkiye’den iş seyahatlerinin durması, birçok ülkeyi olumsuz etkiliyor
Harvard Growth Center’ın araştırması kapsamında oluşturulan etkileşimli görsel harita(**), ülkelerden diğer ülkelere iş seyahatleri durduğunda yaşanan etkileri gösteriyor. Bu haritaya göre örneğin Alman iş adamları seyahat etmeyi bırakırsa en çok Avusturya, Güney Afrika, İsviçre, Nijerya, Çekya ve Türkiye’nin etkileneceği, dahası küresel GSYİH’nin yüzde 4,8 düşeceği tahmin ediliyor. Türkiye yurt dışına iş seyahatlerini durdurduğunda en çok etkilenecek 5 ülke sırasıyla Irak, Azerbaycan, Gürcistan, Arnavutluk ve Pakistan oluyor. Bununla birlikte, daha az olmakla birlikte Belarus’tan Moldova’ya, Güney Amerika ülkelerinden Avustralya’ya kadar pek çok ülke bu durumdan olumsuz etkileniyor.
“İş seyahatlerinin durması, küresel GSYİH’de çift haneli ciddi kayba yol açar”
Harvard Growth Lab’in gelişme kavramına yaklaşımında, know-how’ın önemine özel bir vurgu yapılıyor. Kitaplarda, bilgisayar dosyalarında, grafiklerde ve algoritmalarda bulunan bilginin ve kodlanmış bilginin aksine, yalnızca beyinlerde bulunan know-how, beyinden beyne, yıllarca deneyimle çok yavaş ilerliyor. Yani, know-how’ı hızlı hareket ettirmek için, beyinleri hareket ettirmek gerekiyor. Tam da bu nedenle, bugün e-posta, Skype, FaceTime ve Zoom gibi uygulamalarla terabaytlarca bilgi neredeyse ses hızında bir yerden bir yere gönderilebilir ve zaman tasarrufu yapılabilir durumdayken; şirketler iş seyahatlerinde uçak biletleri, otel ücretleri gibi maliyetlerin yanında gönderdikleri beyinlerin zamanını harcamayı da göze alıyor. Araştırma sonuçlarına göre iş seyahatlerindeki harcamalar, küresel GSYİH’den çok daha hızlı artıyor. Bu açıdan bakıldığında araştırma, COVID-19 ile mücadele için uygulanan uluslararası seyahat kısıtlamalarının ekonomik sonuçları hakkında da yeni endişeler uyandırıyor.
Harvard Growth Lab Direktörü Ricardo Hausmann, “Skype, FaceTime, e-posta gibi alternatiflerin yaygın şekilde benimsenmesine rağmen, iş seyahatlerinin dünya GSYİH’sinden daha hızlı büyüdüğü gerçeği bizi şaşırttı. Çalışmamıza göre dünya, iş seyahati yoluyla beyinlerdeki bilgi birikimini seferber ederek büyük fayda sağlıyor. Bu kanalın kalıcı olarak kapatılması, muhtemelen küresel GSYİH’de çift haneli bir kayıp anlamına gelecektir” diye konuştu.